http://www.cmb-s4.org/wiki/api.php?action=feedcontributions&user=Cdvorkin&feedformat=atomCMB-S4 wiki - User contributions [en]2019-12-16T01:50:18ZUser contributionsMediaWiki 1.30.0http://www.cmb-s4.org/wiki/index.php?title=Forecasting&diff=2406Forecasting2016-05-27T13:36:42Z<p>Cdvorkin: </p>
<hr />
<div>===Forecasting non-r parameters===<br />
<br />
<br />
The expectation is that these forecasts will be done mainly using Fisher forecasts for the Science Book, with prudent use of frequencies and ell-range to avoid being over-optimistic about the impact of Galactic and extragalactic foregrounds and noise from the ground.<br />
<br />
----<br />
====Parameters ====<br />
Names of people responsible for generating forecasts in brackets. Sign yourself up and we can divide up tasks when we speak if there are multiple people.<br />
<br />
*LCDM 6-parameters (all)<br />
<br />
<br />
Inflation section<br />
*curvature (Stephen/Josquin) - also Danielle/Jo<br />
*running (Stephen/Josquin)<br />
*birefringence [[File:birefringence-S4-planck-PB.pdf]]-[[File:birefringence-S4-vary-fwhm-noise.pdf]]-[[File:birefringence-S4-const-effort.pdf]] (Vera/Alex)<br />
*[[Forecastfiso_planck| correlated isocurvature amplitude]] (Cora/Kimmy)<br />
*[[Forecastfiso_planck| uncorrelated isocurvature amplitude]] (Cora/Kimmy)<br />
*compensated isocurvature amplitude [[File:S4CIPsNoise.pdf]] [[File:S4CIPsfsky.pdf]] (Julian/Ely)<br />
*[[ForecastAxions| axion isocurvature ]] (Renee/Doddy/Dan)<br />
*[[ForecastStrings| cosmic string tension ]](Renee)<br />
*primordial magnetic field (TBD)<br />
<br />
<br />
Neutrino section<br />
*neutrino mass sum (Mat/Nam/Neelima - [[File:s4_mnu_CMBonly_BeamVsNoise.pdf]], [[File:s4_mnu_CMB+BA0_BeamVsNoise.pdf]]) - also Alessandro<br />
*Neff (with delensing of TT & EE (Joel/Alex/Dan) - also Mat/Neelima/Nam and Erminia<br />
*Yp (with delensing of TT & EE (Joel/Alex/Dan) - also Erminia<br />
*neutrino sound speed (+Neff+mnu) [[File:S4_neutrinos.pdf]]-[[File:S4_neutrinos_fksy_lmin.pdf]] (Erminia)<br />
<br />
<br />
Dark matter and dark energy section<br />
*[[Forecastpann| dark matter annihilation]] (Cora/Kimmy)<br />
*dark matter interactions (Cora/Kimmy)<br />
*[[ForecastAxions| utralight-axion density]] [[File:mass_m28_frac_sensitivity_resolution.pdf]] (Renee/Doddy/Dan G)<br />
*[[Forecastw|w]] [[File:w_S4.pdf]] (Alessandro) - also Stephen/Josquin<br />
*w0 ,wa (Alessandro) - also Stephen/Josquin<br />
*[[ForecastEDE|early dark energy]] (Erminia)<br />
*gamma (TBD)<br />
<br />
*[[kSZ|kSZ S/N with photometric and spectroscopic surveys]] (Simone, Emmanuel, Colin)<br />
*[[Shear_calibration_LSST|shear bias calibration from S4 x LSST]] (Emmanuel)<br />
<br />
<br />
Here is place-holder for some suggested fiducial parameters and step-sizes, can be different though. Suggested new one: [[File:params_steps_v2.txt|500px]] (Original one here: [[File:params_steps.pdf|500px]])<br />
----<br />
<br />
====Fisher codes ====<br />
With info on what data they can handle and who is available to run them during next two months<br />
<br />
*Errard/Feeney code -unlensed TT, EE, TE and BB, plus deflection dd. Can do iterative EBEB, CIB or LSS delensing, and foreground removal on a statistical level. Current white noise, but simple to extend (Stephen,Josquin) -- web interface accessible at : http://portal.nersc.gov/project/mp107/index.html<br />
*Allison et al code - lensed TT/TE/EE plus kk plus BAO, can take in non-white N_ell but no explicit FG handling (Erminia Calabrese, Danielle Leonard, Jo Dunkley)<br />
*Extension of Allison et al code for axions (Renee Hlozek)<br />
*Stony Brook code - TT/TE/EE/kk with iterative delensing plus BAO, can take in non-white N_ell but no explicit FG handling, being expanded to include LSST shear and cluster counts with halo lensing (Mat Madhavacheril, Neelima Sehgal, Nam Nguyen)<br />
*de Bernardis code - includes kSZ likelihood (Francesco de Bernardis)<br />
*Manzotti code- similar to Allison et al and already partially checked against that code; used for http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02654 (Alessandro Manzotti)<br />
*CITA code - includes delensing of spectra to all orders; forecasts of delensed covariances are in progress (Joel Meyers, Alex van Engelen, Dan Green)<br />
*who has a tSZ likelihood? (David Alonso can do N(M,z) and tSZ fluxes. Who has code to push through to parameters?)<br />
*other codes and people?<br />
<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
====Settings====<br />
<br />
Nominal:<br />
*S4 TT/TE/EE/kk over 40% of sky, 30<ell < lmax<br />
*Planck TT/TE/EE from 30<l<2500 over additional 20% of sky. Use these 'Planck-pol' specs for noise:[[File:planck_pol.pdf|500px]]<br />
*Planck TT at l<30 over 80% of sky<br />
*Tau prior 0.06+-0.01<br />
<br />
<br />
*lmax(TT)=3000 unless explicit foreground cleaning is done in code for kSZ etc<br />
*lmax(TE,EE)=5000 unless explicit foreground cleaning done in code<br />
*kk reconstructed from 30<l<lmax using MV estimate<br />
<br />
<br />
*quadratic estimator for lensing, ideally with iterative delensing<br />
*Gaussian likelihood neglecting T/E/k covariance is ok, but non-Gaussian better (do any codes have full lensed T/E/B/k covariance?)<br />
*non-linear power spectrum for kk, e.g. ok to use halofit in CAMB<br />
<br />
Extensions:<br />
*option to add DESI BAO. These are placeholder for forecast rs/DVs.[[File:bao_desi_v2.pdf|500px]]<br />
<br />
*cluster masses calibrated with LSST lensing or CMB halo lensing (need to refine what that means)<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
====Specs====<br />
<br />
''Nominal test case''<br />
*Single channel (e.g. 150 GHz) at 1 uK/amin in T and 1.4uK/amin in P, 3 arcmin resolution.<br />
*White noise, no FG inflation<br />
*Useful if your code can spit out errors as function of noise level in 1-10 uK/arcmin range and resolution in range 1-10 arcmin.<br />
<br />
''Next steps''<br />
<br />
*Define multiple frequencies of the survey<br />
*Decide if an N_ell that captures non-white-noise is necessary <br />
*Define residual FG level if any</div>Cdvorkinhttp://www.cmb-s4.org/wiki/index.php?title=Forecasting&diff=2405Forecasting2016-05-27T13:36:03Z<p>Cdvorkin: </p>
<hr />
<div>===Forecasting non-r parameters===<br />
<br />
<br />
The expectation is that these forecasts will be done mainly using Fisher forecasts for the Science Book, with prudent use of frequencies and ell-range to avoid being over-optimistic about the impact of Galactic and extragalactic foregrounds and noise from the ground.<br />
<br />
----<br />
====Parameters ====<br />
Names of people responsible for generating forecasts in brackets. Sign yourself up and we can divide up tasks when we speak if there are multiple people.<br />
<br />
*LCDM 6-parameters (all)<br />
<br />
<br />
Inflation section<br />
*curvature (Stephen/Josquin) - also Danielle/Jo<br />
*running (Stephen/Josquin)<br />
*birefringence [[File:birefringence-S4-planck-PB.pdf]]-[[File:birefringence-S4-vary-fwhm-noise.pdf]]-[[File:birefringence-S4-const-effort.pdf]] (Vera/Alex)<br />
*[[Forecastfiso_planck| correlated isocurvature amplitude]] (Cora/Kimmy)<br />
*uncorrelated isocurvature amplitude (Cora/Kimmy)<br />
*compensated isocurvature amplitude [[File:S4CIPsNoise.pdf]] [[File:S4CIPsfsky.pdf]] (Julian/Ely)<br />
*[[ForecastAxions| axion isocurvature ]] (Renee/Doddy/Dan)<br />
*[[ForecastStrings| cosmic string tension ]](Renee)<br />
*primordial magnetic field (TBD)<br />
<br />
<br />
Neutrino section<br />
*neutrino mass sum (Mat/Nam/Neelima - [[File:s4_mnu_CMBonly_BeamVsNoise.pdf]], [[File:s4_mnu_CMB+BA0_BeamVsNoise.pdf]]) - also Alessandro<br />
*Neff (with delensing of TT & EE (Joel/Alex/Dan) - also Mat/Neelima/Nam and Erminia<br />
*Yp (with delensing of TT & EE (Joel/Alex/Dan) - also Erminia<br />
*neutrino sound speed (+Neff+mnu) [[File:S4_neutrinos.pdf]]-[[File:S4_neutrinos_fksy_lmin.pdf]] (Erminia)<br />
<br />
<br />
Dark matter and dark energy section<br />
*[[Forecastpann| dark matter annihilation]] (Cora/Kimmy)<br />
*dark matter interactions (Cora/Kimmy)<br />
*[[ForecastAxions| utralight-axion density]] [[File:mass_m28_frac_sensitivity_resolution.pdf]] (Renee/Doddy/Dan G)<br />
*[[Forecastw|w]] [[File:w_S4.pdf]] (Alessandro) - also Stephen/Josquin<br />
*w0 ,wa (Alessandro) - also Stephen/Josquin<br />
*[[ForecastEDE|early dark energy]] (Erminia)<br />
*gamma (TBD)<br />
<br />
*[[kSZ|kSZ S/N with photometric and spectroscopic surveys]] (Simone, Emmanuel, Colin)<br />
*[[Shear_calibration_LSST|shear bias calibration from S4 x LSST]] (Emmanuel)<br />
<br />
<br />
Here is place-holder for some suggested fiducial parameters and step-sizes, can be different though. Suggested new one: [[File:params_steps_v2.txt|500px]] (Original one here: [[File:params_steps.pdf|500px]])<br />
----<br />
<br />
====Fisher codes ====<br />
With info on what data they can handle and who is available to run them during next two months<br />
<br />
*Errard/Feeney code -unlensed TT, EE, TE and BB, plus deflection dd. Can do iterative EBEB, CIB or LSS delensing, and foreground removal on a statistical level. Current white noise, but simple to extend (Stephen,Josquin) -- web interface accessible at : http://portal.nersc.gov/project/mp107/index.html<br />
*Allison et al code - lensed TT/TE/EE plus kk plus BAO, can take in non-white N_ell but no explicit FG handling (Erminia Calabrese, Danielle Leonard, Jo Dunkley)<br />
*Extension of Allison et al code for axions (Renee Hlozek)<br />
*Stony Brook code - TT/TE/EE/kk with iterative delensing plus BAO, can take in non-white N_ell but no explicit FG handling, being expanded to include LSST shear and cluster counts with halo lensing (Mat Madhavacheril, Neelima Sehgal, Nam Nguyen)<br />
*de Bernardis code - includes kSZ likelihood (Francesco de Bernardis)<br />
*Manzotti code- similar to Allison et al and already partially checked against that code; used for http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02654 (Alessandro Manzotti)<br />
*CITA code - includes delensing of spectra to all orders; forecasts of delensed covariances are in progress (Joel Meyers, Alex van Engelen, Dan Green)<br />
*who has a tSZ likelihood? (David Alonso can do N(M,z) and tSZ fluxes. Who has code to push through to parameters?)<br />
*other codes and people?<br />
<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
====Settings====<br />
<br />
Nominal:<br />
*S4 TT/TE/EE/kk over 40% of sky, 30<ell < lmax<br />
*Planck TT/TE/EE from 30<l<2500 over additional 20% of sky. Use these 'Planck-pol' specs for noise:[[File:planck_pol.pdf|500px]]<br />
*Planck TT at l<30 over 80% of sky<br />
*Tau prior 0.06+-0.01<br />
<br />
<br />
*lmax(TT)=3000 unless explicit foreground cleaning is done in code for kSZ etc<br />
*lmax(TE,EE)=5000 unless explicit foreground cleaning done in code<br />
*kk reconstructed from 30<l<lmax using MV estimate<br />
<br />
<br />
*quadratic estimator for lensing, ideally with iterative delensing<br />
*Gaussian likelihood neglecting T/E/k covariance is ok, but non-Gaussian better (do any codes have full lensed T/E/B/k covariance?)<br />
*non-linear power spectrum for kk, e.g. ok to use halofit in CAMB<br />
<br />
Extensions:<br />
*option to add DESI BAO. These are placeholder for forecast rs/DVs.[[File:bao_desi_v2.pdf|500px]]<br />
<br />
*cluster masses calibrated with LSST lensing or CMB halo lensing (need to refine what that means)<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
====Specs====<br />
<br />
''Nominal test case''<br />
*Single channel (e.g. 150 GHz) at 1 uK/amin in T and 1.4uK/amin in P, 3 arcmin resolution.<br />
*White noise, no FG inflation<br />
*Useful if your code can spit out errors as function of noise level in 1-10 uK/arcmin range and resolution in range 1-10 arcmin.<br />
<br />
''Next steps''<br />
<br />
*Define multiple frequencies of the survey<br />
*Decide if an N_ell that captures non-white-noise is necessary <br />
*Define residual FG level if any</div>Cdvorkinhttp://www.cmb-s4.org/wiki/index.php?title=Forecasting&diff=2339Forecasting2016-05-22T03:48:21Z<p>Cdvorkin: </p>
<hr />
<div>===Forecasting non-r parameters===<br />
<br />
<br />
The expectation is that these forecasts will be done mainly using Fisher forecasts for the Science Book, with prudent use of frequencies and ell-range to avoid being over-optimistic about the impact of Galactic and extragalactic foregrounds and noise from the ground.<br />
<br />
----<br />
====Parameters ====<br />
Names of people responsible for generating forecasts in brackets. Sign yourself up and we can divide up tasks when we speak if there are multiple people.<br />
<br />
*LCDM 6-parameters (all)<br />
<br />
<br />
Inflation section<br />
*curvature (Stephen/Josquin) - also Danielle/Jo<br />
*running (Stephen/Josquin)<br />
*birefringence [[File:birefringence-S4-planck-PB.pdf]]-[[File:birefringence-S4-vary-fwhm-noise.pdf]]-[[File:birefringence-S4-const-effort.pdf]] (Vera/Alex)<br />
*correlated isocurvature amplitude (Cora/Kimmy)<br />
*uncorrelated isocurvature amplitude (Cora/Kimmy)<br />
*compensated isocurvature amplitude [[File:S4CIPsNoise.pdf]] [[File:S4CIPsfsky.pdf]] (Julian/Ely)<br />
*[[ForecastAxions| axion isocurvature ]] (Renee/Doddy/Dan)<br />
*[[ForecastStrings| cosmic string tension ]](Renee)<br />
*primordial magnetic field (TBD)<br />
<br />
<br />
Neutrino section<br />
*neutrino mass sum (Mat/Nam/Neelima - [[File:s4_mnu_CMBonly_BeamVsNoise.pdf]], [[File:s4_mnu_CMB+BA0_BeamVsNoise.pdf]]) - also Alessandro<br />
*Neff (with delensing of TT & EE (Joel/Alex/Dan) - also Mat/Neelima/Nam and Erminia<br />
*Yp (with delensing of TT & EE (Joel/Alex/Dan) - also Erminia<br />
*neutrino sound speed (+Neff+mnu) [[File:S4_neutrinos.pdf]]-[[File:S4_neutrinos_fksy_lmin.pdf]] (Erminia)<br />
<br />
<br />
Dark matter and dark energy section<br />
*[[Forecastpann| dark matter annihilation]] (Cora/Kimmy)<br />
*dark matter interactions (Cora/Kimmy)<br />
*[[ForecastAxions| utralight-axion density]] [[File:mass_m28_frac_sensitivity_resolution.pdf]] (Renee/Doddy/Dan G)<br />
*w (Alessandro) - also Stephen/Josquin<br />
*w0,wa (Alessandro) - also Stephen/Josquin<br />
*[[ForecastEDE|early dark energy]] (Erminia)<br />
*gamma (TBD)<br />
<br />
*kSZ S/N from S4 x photo-z (Simone)<br />
*[[Shear_calibration_LSST|shear bias calibration from S4 x LSST]] (Emmanuel)<br />
<br />
<br />
Here is place-holder for some suggested fiducial parameters and step-sizes, can be different though. Suggested new one: [[File:params_steps_v2.txt|500px]] (Original one here: [[File:params_steps.pdf|500px]])<br />
----<br />
<br />
====Fisher codes ====<br />
With info on what data they can handle and who is available to run them during next two months<br />
<br />
*Errard/Feeney code -unlensed TT, EE, TE and BB, plus deflection dd. Can do iterative EBEB, CIB or LSS delensing, and foreground removal on a statistical level. Current white noise, but simple to extend (Stephen,Josquin) -- web interface accessible at : http://portal.nersc.gov/project/mp107/index.html<br />
*Allison et al code - lensed TT/TE/EE plus kk plus BAO, can take in non-white N_ell but no explicit FG handling (Erminia Calabrese, Danielle Leonard, Jo Dunkley)<br />
*Extension of Allison et al code for axions (Renee Hlozek)<br />
*Stony Brook code - TT/TE/EE/kk with iterative delensing plus BAO, can take in non-white N_ell but no explicit FG handling, being expanded to include LSST shear and cluster counts with halo lensing (Mat Madhavacheril, Neelima Sehgal, Nam Nguyen)<br />
*de Bernardis code - includes kSZ likelihood (Francesco de Bernardis)<br />
*Manzotti code- similar to Allison et al and already partially checked against that code; used for http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02654 (Alessandro Manzotti)<br />
*CITA code - includes delensing of spectra to all orders; forecasts of delensed covariances are in progress (Joel Meyers, Alex van Engelen, Dan Green)<br />
*who has a tSZ likelihood? (David Alonso can do N(M,z) and tSZ fluxes. Who has code to push through to parameters?)<br />
*other codes and people?<br />
<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
====Settings====<br />
<br />
Nominal:<br />
*S4 TT/TE/EE/kk over 40% of sky, 30<ell < lmax<br />
*Planck TT/TE/EE from 30<l<2500 over additional 20% of sky. Use these 'Planck-pol' specs for noise:[[File:planck_pol.pdf|500px]]<br />
*Planck TT at l<30 over 80% of sky<br />
*Tau prior 0.06+-0.01<br />
<br />
<br />
*lmax(TT)=3000 unless explicit foreground cleaning is done in code for kSZ etc<br />
*lmax(TE,EE)=5000 unless explicit foreground cleaning done in code<br />
*kk reconstructed from 30<l<lmax using MV estimate<br />
<br />
<br />
*quadratic estimator for lensing, ideally with iterative delensing<br />
*Gaussian likelihood neglecting T/E/k covariance is ok, but non-Gaussian better (do any codes have full lensed T/E/B/k covariance?)<br />
*non-linear power spectrum for kk, e.g. ok to use halofit in CAMB<br />
<br />
Extensions:<br />
*option to add DESI BAO. These are placeholder for forecast rs/DVs.[[File:bao_desi_v2.pdf|500px]]<br />
<br />
*cluster masses calibrated with LSST lensing or CMB halo lensing (need to refine what that means)<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
====Specs====<br />
<br />
''Nominal test case''<br />
*Single channel (e.g. 150 GHz) at 1 uK/amin in T and 1.4uK/amin in P, 3 arcmin resolution.<br />
*White noise, no FG inflation<br />
*Useful if your code can spit out errors as function of noise level in 1-10 uK/arcmin range and resolution in range 1-10 arcmin.<br />
<br />
''Next steps''<br />
<br />
*Define multiple frequencies of the survey<br />
*Decide if an N_ell that captures non-white-noise is necessary <br />
*Define residual FG level if any</div>Cdvorkinhttp://www.cmb-s4.org/wiki/index.php?title=Forecasting&diff=2338Forecasting2016-05-22T03:44:18Z<p>Cdvorkin: </p>
<hr />
<div>===Forecasting non-r parameters===<br />
<br />
<br />
The expectation is that these forecasts will be done mainly using Fisher forecasts for the Science Book, with prudent use of frequencies and ell-range to avoid being over-optimistic about the impact of Galactic and extragalactic foregrounds and noise from the ground.<br />
<br />
----<br />
====Parameters ====<br />
Names of people responsible for generating forecasts in brackets. Sign yourself up and we can divide up tasks when we speak if there are multiple people.<br />
<br />
*LCDM 6-parameters (all)<br />
<br />
<br />
Inflation section<br />
*curvature (Stephen/Josquin) - also Danielle/Jo<br />
*running (Stephen/Josquin)<br />
*birefringence [[File:birefringence-S4-planck-PB.pdf]]-[[File:birefringence-S4-vary-fwhm-noise.pdf]]-[[File:birefringence-S4-const-effort.pdf]] (Vera/Alex)<br />
*correlated isocurvature amplitude (Cora/Kimmy)<br />
*uncorrelated isocurvature amplitude (Cora/Kimmy)<br />
*compensated isocurvature amplitude [[File:S4CIPsNoise.pdf]] [[File:S4CIPsfsky.pdf]] (Julian/Ely)<br />
*[[ForecastAxions| axion isocurvature ]] (Renee/Doddy/Dan)<br />
*[[ForecastStrings| cosmic string tension ]](Renee)<br />
*primordial magnetic field (TBD)<br />
<br />
<br />
Neutrino section<br />
*neutrino mass sum (Mat/Nam/Neelima - [[File:s4_mnu_CMBonly_BeamVsNoise.pdf]], [[File:s4_mnu_CMB+BA0_BeamVsNoise.pdf]]) - also Alessandro<br />
*Neff (with delensing of TT & EE (Joel/Alex/Dan) - also Mat/Neelima/Nam and Erminia<br />
*Yp (with delensing of TT & EE (Joel/Alex/Dan) - also Erminia<br />
*neutrino sound speed (+Neff+mnu) [[File:S4_neutrinos.pdf]]-[[File:S4_neutrinos_fksy_lmin.pdf]] (Erminia)<br />
<br />
<br />
Dark matter and dark energy section<br />
*dark matter annihilation (Cora/Kimmy)<br />
*dark matter interactions (Cora/Kimmy)<br />
*[[ForecastAxions| utralight-axion density]] [[File:mass_m28_frac_sensitivity_resolution.pdf]] (Renee/Doddy/Dan G)<br />
*w (Alessandro) - also Stephen/Josquin<br />
*w0,wa (Alessandro) - also Stephen/Josquin<br />
*[[ForecastEDE|early dark energy]] (Erminia)<br />
*gamma (TBD)<br />
<br />
*kSZ S/N from S4 x photo-z (Simone)<br />
*[[Shear_calibration_LSST|shear bias calibration from S4 x LSST]] (Emmanuel)<br />
<br />
<br />
Here is place-holder for some suggested fiducial parameters and step-sizes, can be different though. Suggested new one: [[File:params_steps_v2.txt|500px]] (Original one here: [[File:params_steps.pdf|500px]])<br />
----<br />
<br />
====Fisher codes ====<br />
With info on what data they can handle and who is available to run them during next two months<br />
<br />
*Errard/Feeney code -unlensed TT, EE, TE and BB, plus deflection dd. Can do iterative EBEB, CIB or LSS delensing, and foreground removal on a statistical level. Current white noise, but simple to extend (Stephen,Josquin) -- web interface accessible at : http://portal.nersc.gov/project/mp107/index.html<br />
*Allison et al code - lensed TT/TE/EE plus kk plus BAO, can take in non-white N_ell but no explicit FG handling (Erminia Calabrese, Danielle Leonard, Jo Dunkley)<br />
*Extension of Allison et al code for axions (Renee Hlozek)<br />
*Stony Brook code - TT/TE/EE/kk with iterative delensing plus BAO, can take in non-white N_ell but no explicit FG handling, being expanded to include LSST shear and cluster counts with halo lensing (Mat Madhavacheril, Neelima Sehgal, Nam Nguyen)<br />
*de Bernardis code - includes kSZ likelihood (Francesco de Bernardis)<br />
*Manzotti code- similar to Allison et al and already partially checked against that code; used for http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02654 (Alessandro Manzotti)<br />
*CITA code - includes delensing of spectra to all orders; forecasts of delensed covariances are in progress (Joel Meyers, Alex van Engelen, Dan Green)<br />
*who has a tSZ likelihood? (David Alonso can do N(M,z) and tSZ fluxes. Who has code to push through to parameters?)<br />
*other codes and people?<br />
<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
====Settings====<br />
<br />
Nominal:<br />
*S4 TT/TE/EE/kk over 40% of sky, 30<ell < lmax<br />
*Planck TT/TE/EE from 30<l<2500 over additional 20% of sky. Use these 'Planck-pol' specs for noise:[[File:planck_pol.pdf|500px]]<br />
*Planck TT at l<30 over 80% of sky<br />
*Tau prior 0.06+-0.01<br />
<br />
<br />
*lmax(TT)=3000 unless explicit foreground cleaning is done in code for kSZ etc<br />
*lmax(TE,EE)=5000 unless explicit foreground cleaning done in code<br />
*kk reconstructed from 30<l<lmax using MV estimate<br />
<br />
<br />
*quadratic estimator for lensing, ideally with iterative delensing<br />
*Gaussian likelihood neglecting T/E/k covariance is ok, but non-Gaussian better (do any codes have full lensed T/E/B/k covariance?)<br />
*non-linear power spectrum for kk, e.g. ok to use halofit in CAMB<br />
<br />
Extensions:<br />
*option to add DESI BAO. These are placeholder for forecast rs/DVs.[[File:bao_desi_v2.pdf|500px]]<br />
<br />
*cluster masses calibrated with LSST lensing or CMB halo lensing (need to refine what that means)<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
====Specs====<br />
<br />
''Nominal test case''<br />
*Single channel (e.g. 150 GHz) at 1 uK/amin in T and 1.4uK/amin in P, 3 arcmin resolution.<br />
*White noise, no FG inflation<br />
*Useful if your code can spit out errors as function of noise level in 1-10 uK/arcmin range and resolution in range 1-10 arcmin.<br />
<br />
''Next steps''<br />
<br />
*Define multiple frequencies of the survey<br />
*Decide if an N_ell that captures non-white-noise is necessary <br />
*Define residual FG level if any</div>Cdvorkinhttp://www.cmb-s4.org/wiki/index.php?title=Forecasting&diff=1918Forecasting2016-04-06T22:02:06Z<p>Cdvorkin: /* Parameters */</p>
<hr />
<div>===Forecasting non-r parameters===<br />
<br />
<br />
The expectation is that these forecasts will be done mainly using Fisher forecasts for the Science Book, with prudent use of frequencies and ell-range to avoid being over-optimistic about the impact of Galactic and extragalactic foregrounds and noise from the ground.<br />
<br />
----<br />
====Parameters ====<br />
Names of people responsible for generating forecasts in brackets. Sign yourself up and we can divide up tasks when we speak if there are multiple people.<br />
<br />
*LCDM 6-parameters<br />
<br />
<br />
*curvature <br />
*running<br />
*birefringence<br />
*correlated isocurvature amplitude (Cora, Kimmy Wu)<br />
*uncorrelated isocurvature amplitude (Cora, Kimmy Wu)<br />
* axion isocurvature (Renee, Doddy, Dan)<br />
*cosmic string tension (Renee)<br />
*primordial magnetic field<br />
<br />
<br />
*neutrino mass sum (Mat, Neelima)<br />
*Neff (Dan G?, Mat, Neelima) -- with delensing of TT & EE (Joel, Alex, Dan)<br />
*Yp (with delensing of TT & EE (Joel, Alex, Dan)<br />
*neutrino sound speed<br />
<br />
<br />
*dark matter annihilation (Cora)<br />
*dark matter interactions (Cora)<br />
*utralight-axion density (Renee, Doddy Marsh, Dan Grin)<br />
*w<br />
*w0,wa<br />
*f<br />
<br />
<br />
*r with delensing (Neelima, Mat)<br />
<br />
<br />
Here is place-holder for some suggested fiducial parameters and step-sizes, can be different though.[[File:params_steps.pdf|500px]]<br />
----<br />
<br />
====Fisher codes ====<br />
With info on what data they can handle and who is available to run them during next two months<br />
<br />
*Errard/Feeney code (Josquin Errard)<br />
*Allison et al code - lensed TT/TE/EE plus kk plus BAO, can take in non-white N_ell but no explicit FG handling (Danielle Leonard, Jo Dunkley)<br />
*Extension of Allison et al code for axions (Renee Hlozek)<br />
*Stony Brook code - TT/TE/EE/kk with iterative delensing plus BAO, can take in non-white N_ell but no explicit FG handling, being expanded to include LSST shear and cluster counts with halo lensing (Mat Madhavacheril, Neelima Sehgal, Nam Nguyen)<br />
*de Bernardis code - includes kSZ likelihood (Francesco de Bernardis)<br />
*Manzotti code- similar to Allison et al and already partially checked against that code; used for http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02654 (Alessandro Manzotti)<br />
*CITA code - includes delensing of spectra to all orders; forecasts of delensed covariances are in progress (Joel Meyers, Alex van Engelen, Dan Green)<br />
*who has a tSZ likelihood?<br />
*other codes and people?<br />
<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
====Settings====<br />
<br />
*S4 TT/TE/EE/kk over 40% of sky, 30<ell < lmax<br />
*Planck TT/TE/EE from 30<l<2500 over additional 20% of sky. Use these 'Planck-pol' specs for noise:[[File:planck_pol.pdf|500px]]<br />
*Planck TT at l<30 over 80% of sky<br />
*Tau prior 0.06+-0.01<br />
<br />
<br />
*lmax(TT)=3000 unless explicit foreground cleaning is done in code for kSZ etc<br />
*lmax(TE,EE)=5000 unless explicit foreground cleaning done in code<br />
*kk reconstructed from 30<l<lmax using MV estimate<br />
<br />
<br />
*quadratic estimator for lensing, ideally with iterative delensing<br />
*Gaussian likelihood neglecting T/E/k covariance is ok, but non-Gaussian better (do any codes have full lensed T/E/B/k covariance?)<br />
*non-linear power spectrum for kk, e.g. ok to use halofit in CAMB<br />
<br />
<br />
*option to add DESI BAO. These are placeholder for forecast rs/DVs.[[File:bao_desi.pdf|500px]]<br />
<br />
*cluster masses calibrated with LSST lensing or CMB halo lensing (need to refine what that means)<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
====Specs====<br />
<br />
''Nominal test case''<br />
*Single channel (e.g. 150 GHz) at 1 uK/amin in T and 1.4uK/amin in P, 3 arcmin resolution.<br />
*White noise, no FG inflation<br />
*Useful if your code can spit out errors as function of noise level in 1-10 uK/arcmin range and resolution in range 1-10 arcmin.<br />
<br />
''Next steps''<br />
<br />
*Define multiple frequencies of the survey<br />
*Decide if an N_ell that captures non-white-noise is necessary <br />
*Define residual FG level if any</div>Cdvorkinhttp://www.cmb-s4.org/wiki/index.php?title=Forecasting&diff=1917Forecasting2016-04-06T18:40:32Z<p>Cdvorkin: /* Parameters */</p>
<hr />
<div>===Forecasting non-r parameters===<br />
<br />
<br />
The expectation is that these forecasts will be done mainly using Fisher forecasts for the Science Book, with prudent use of frequencies and ell-range to avoid being over-optimistic about the impact of Galactic and extragalactic foregrounds and noise from the ground.<br />
<br />
----<br />
====Parameters ====<br />
Names of people responsible for generating forecasts in brackets. Sign yourself up and we can divide up tasks when we speak if there are multiple people.<br />
<br />
*LCDM 6-parameters<br />
<br />
<br />
*curvature <br />
*running<br />
*birefringence<br />
*correlated isocurvature amplitude<br />
*uncorrelated isocurvature amplitude<br />
* axion isocurvature (Renee, Doddy, Dan)<br />
*cosmic string tension (Renee)<br />
*primordial magnetic field<br />
<br />
<br />
*neutrino mass sum (Mat, Neelima)<br />
*Neff (Dan G?, Mat, Neelima) -- with delensing of TT & EE (Joel, Alex, Dan)<br />
*Yp (with delensing of TT & EE (Joel, Alex, Dan)<br />
*neutrino sound speed<br />
<br />
<br />
*dark matter annihilation (Cora)<br />
*dark matter interactions (Cora)<br />
*utralight-axion density (Renee, Doddy Marsh, Dan Grin)<br />
*w<br />
*w0,wa<br />
*f<br />
<br />
<br />
*r with delensing (Neelima, Mat)<br />
<br />
<br />
Here is place-holder for some suggested fiducial parameters and step-sizes, can be different though.[[File:params_steps.pdf|500px]]<br />
----<br />
<br />
====Fisher codes ====<br />
With info on what data they can handle and who is available to run them during next two months<br />
<br />
*Errard/Feeney code (Josquin Errard)<br />
*Allison et al code - lensed TT/TE/EE plus kk plus BAO, can take in non-white N_ell but no explicit FG handling (Danielle Leonard, Jo Dunkley)<br />
*Extension of Allison et al code for axions (Renee Hlozek)<br />
*Stony Brook code - TT/TE/EE/kk with iterative delensing plus BAO, can take in non-white N_ell but no explicit FG handling, being expanded to include LSST shear and cluster counts with halo lensing (Mat Madhavacheril, Neelima Sehgal, Nam Nguyen)<br />
*de Bernardis code - includes kSZ likelihood (Francesco de Bernardis)<br />
*Manzotti code- similar to Allison et al and already partially checked against that code; used for http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.02654 (Alessandro Manzotti)<br />
*CITA code - includes delensing of spectra to all orders; forecasts of delensed covariances are in progress (Joel Meyers, Alex van Engelen, Dan Green)<br />
*who has a tSZ likelihood?<br />
*other codes and people?<br />
<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
====Settings====<br />
<br />
*S4 TT/TE/EE/kk over 40% of sky, 30<ell < lmax<br />
*Planck TT/TE/EE from 30<l<2500 over additional 20% of sky. Use these 'Planck-pol' specs for noise:[[File:planck_pol.pdf|500px]]<br />
*Planck TT at l<30 over 80% of sky<br />
*Tau prior 0.06+-0.01<br />
<br />
<br />
*lmax(TT)=3000 unless explicit foreground cleaning is done in code for kSZ etc<br />
*lmax(TE,EE)=5000 unless explicit foreground cleaning done in code<br />
*kk reconstructed from 30<l<lmax using MV estimate<br />
<br />
<br />
*quadratic estimator for lensing, ideally with iterative delensing<br />
*Gaussian likelihood neglecting T/E/k covariance is ok, but non-Gaussian better (do any codes have full lensed T/E/B/k covariance?)<br />
*non-linear power spectrum for kk, e.g. ok to use halofit in CAMB<br />
<br />
<br />
*option to add DESI BAO. These are placeholder for forecast rs/DVs.[[File:bao_desi.pdf|500px]]<br />
<br />
*cluster masses calibrated with LSST lensing or CMB halo lensing (need to refine what that means)<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
====Specs====<br />
<br />
''Nominal test case''<br />
*Single channel (e.g. 150 GHz) at 1 uK/amin in T and 1.4uK/amin in P, 3 arcmin resolution.<br />
*White noise, no FG inflation<br />
*Useful if your code can spit out errors as function of noise level in 1-10 uK/arcmin range and resolution in range 1-10 arcmin.<br />
<br />
''Next steps''<br />
<br />
*Define multiple frequencies of the survey<br />
*Decide if an N_ell that captures non-white-noise is necessary <br />
*Define residual FG level if any</div>Cdvorkin